Things are not always as they might seem when it comes to the Triple Crown.
A case in point:
At the June 3 post position draw for the June 8 Belmont Stakes (G1) at Saratoga Race Course, Seize the Grey drew the rail in a field of 10 3-year-olds.That's the same Seize the Grey who posted a gate-to-wire, 2 1/4-length victory May 18 in the Preakness Stakes (G1).
So, from that spot, where getting shuffled back is a real concern, it seems logical that jockey Jaime Torres would hustle the MyRacehorse colt out of the gate intent on the lead.
Not so, according to trainer D. Waye Lukas, the sport's 88-year-old living legend.
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"He's not one-dimensional. We can play off the break," Lukas said June 4 outside his deserted barn at Saratoga occupied by just Seize the Grey. "We can do whatever we want. We can lay third, fourth, fifth. Maybe he'll be on the lead. He's very manageable. We'll let them decide what they want to do and we'll play off what they do."
The pace looms a key question in the mile-and-a-quarter Belmont as Seize the Grey, Dornoch (post 6), Mindframe (post 9), Antiquarian (post 5), Resilience (post 2), and The Wine Steward (post 4) all have done their best racing while on or within a length or two of the lead.
While who will be on the early lead has some mystery attached to it, Lukas maintains rather strongly that Seize the Grey bounced out of the Preakness in great shape and that the son of Arrogate is heading into the Belmont sharper than he was for the Preakness.
"I thought I had him dead fit for the Preakness, but since then he's acted fitter and sharper. I think he's in a better position to run here than in the Preakness," the Hall of Famer said.
Lukas has won the Preakness seven times and the Belmont four times, but his only victories in the second and third legs of the Triple Crown in the same year came in 1994 with Tabasco Cat.
Five a Lucky Number for Antiquarian in Belmont Stakes
Trainer Kenny McPeek was given a task by Lance Gasaway, one of the owners of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Mystik Dan.Gasaway wanted post 3 in the $2 million Belmont Stakes (G1) at Saratoga Race Course.
"It's a lucky number," McPeek said.
Well, mission accomplished. Mystik Dan drew post 3for the June 8 classic.Yet Gasaway's good fortune could not match the layers included in the hopes of Centennial Farms president and co-owner Don Little Jr. for a lucky number. In looking over some of the factors surrounding his partnership's Belmont Stakes entrant, the Todd Pletcher-trained Peter Pan Stakes (G3) winner Antiquarian, one number kept popping up.
"It was Todd's fifth Peter Pan win. It would be his fifth Belmont win. Antiquarian is our fifth horse running in the Belmont and it will be my aunt's 95th birthday," Little said. "I would love to get post five."
Apparently, the racing gods were listening.
Antiquarian will break from post 5 in the Belmont.
"Unbelievable," Little said.
At 12-1 morning-line odds and all those common numbers swirling around, a $5 win bet on Antiquarian might not be a bad idea.
Rainy Forecast for All Four Days at Saratoga
It seems like everyone wants to be at Saratoga Race Course for the upcoming Belmont Stakes Racing Festival.
Including Mother Nature.
According to The Weather Channel, there is at least a 40% chance of rain during each of the four days (June 6-9) of racing at the Spa.
June 6 seems destined to be the biggest washout, with the forecast calling for a 90% chance of rain with thunderstorms likely.
The following day, there's a 40% chance of rain, with showers developing later in the day.
As for the centerpiece Belmont Stakes Day on June 8, there's a 44% chance of showers.
Finally, on June 9, there's a 50% chance of rain.
Keep in mind that weather predictions are off base at times and weather can change unpredictably in the Adirondack Mountains, where there can be rain and sunshine in the same half-hour. Yet at Saratoga, when it rains, it never seems to sprinkle. Intense storms are part of the Spa's lore, though it's an odds-on assumption that virtually everyone connected with the four days of racing would prefer it if Mother Nature sits out the festivities.
Of course, whatever the weather turns out to be, it would be hard to top last year's Belmont Stakes week at now-under-construction Belmont Park, when smoke from the Canadian wildfires turned the afternoon Long Island skies an eerie shade of orange and created unsafe breathing conditions that forced the cancellation of one racing program.
