Seize the Greyexcelled over thewet trackat Pimlico Race Course, leading from start to finish in the May 18 Preakness Stakes (G1) under Jaime Torres to defeat Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Mystik Dan by 2 1/4 lengths.
Similarly, Mystik Dan grittilyturned aside Sierra Leone and Japanese star Forever Young in a thrilling 150th Kentucky Derbytwo weeks earlier.
But history suggests horseplayers should not narrow their focus to simply these two horses when the Belmont Stakes (G1), the third and final leg of the Triple Crown, is contested June 8. If they both compete, this will mark the first time since 2013 that a separate Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness winner have met in the Belmont. That year, Preakness winner Oxbow ran second behindPalace Malice in the final race of the series and Derby winner Orb was third.
Not since Afleet Alex in 2005 has a non-Derby-winning Preakness victor prevailed in the final leg of the Triple Crown. And the Belmont drought for Derby winners who lost the Preakness is even longer, dating back to Thunder Gulch in 1995—something to bear in mind if Mystik Dan runs in all three races that comprise the Triple Crown. (If he continues to do well, trainer Kenny McPeek plans to enter Mystik Dan inthe Belmont after a workout June 1.)
Before Thunder Gulch, Swale won the Derby and Belmont in 1984, with a loss in the Preakness in between. Since that time, American Pharoah (2015) and Justify (2018) won the first two legs before their Triple Crown successin the Belmont, but with separate winners of the Derby and Preakness, no Triple Crown is in play this year.
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Looking deeper into the 1980s and 1990s—back when horses were raced more frequently and when fewer horses skipped the middle leg of the Triple Crown—Point Given (2001), Tabasco Cat (1994), Hansel (1991) and Risen Star (1988) pulled off the Preakness-Belmont double after initial losses in the Derby.
Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas trained Tabasco Cat to that victory and 30 years later will try to replicate the feat in a unique 2024 running. Moved to Saratoga Race Course due to reconstruction at Belmont Park, the race is not only a new venue—but over a shorter distance of 1 1/4 miles, not the 1 1/2 miles that traditionally marks the race known as the "Test of the Champion."
One could speculate that a shorter distance may benefit Seize the Grey this year—if for no other reason than that it is not five-sixteenthsof a mile longer, just an extra sixteenth.
"I think, if they're going to beat him, they maybe should extend it back out a bit," Lukas quipped at the Preakness press conference. "If we go, we'll be tough. He'll get 1 1/4 miles. He would have gotten 1 1/4 miles today."
He would have the waythe Preakness unfolded. In a race void of a much speed, he took the Preakness lead by default when Imagination, one of the race's other anticipated pacesetters, was hard held and restrained while kept wide in an attempt to get him to relaxand provide him a target.
That meant Seize the Grey got to coast early through splits of :23.98, :47.33, and 1:11.95—leaving plenty in reserve to turn back early stretch bids from runner-up Mystik Dan and third-place Catching Freedom. He hit the wire with 1 3/16 miles on a sealed, muddy track in 1:56.82. His time was the slowest since Exaggerator ran the distance in 1:58.31 in 2016, also over a wet surface.
As for Mystik Dan, his performance in the Preakness, two weeks after a grueling three-horse photo finish in the Derby, was admirable. He, too, seems better suited to 1 1/4 miles than 1 1/2 miles. He seemed likely to have beencaught by runner-up Sierra Leone in another stride or two in the Derby at 1 1/4 miles.
The surface at Saratoga also changes the dynamic from Belmont Park.
"If we were at Belmont, we'd be going a mile and a half," trainer Kenny Mcpeek said May 30 on a National Thoroughbred Racing Association teleconference. "As everybody knows, the nickname of 'Big Sandy' of Belmont, I think that would have been difficult for my colt. He's not a really big horse; he's a modest-sized horse. Very well-balanced, well made. But I thought the deeper Belmont would have been maybeless interesting for me.
"But the fact the Saratoga (is) at amile and an eighth racing surface and this race at a mile and a quarter, should suit him well. Of course he's won at a mile and a quarter already, and I think he's capable of doing it again here."
With Brian Hernandez Jr. guiding him in his races, Mystik Dan has shown that no hole or opening is too intimidating. The colt likely regressed a bit in the Preakness and still was better than all but one rival.
If he and Seize the Grey race in the Belmont, each will be making their third startin five weeks—in Seize the Grey's case, since starting in the Pat Day Mile Stakes (G2) on the Kentucky Derby undercard.
By contrast, horses like Sierra Leone are fresher, not having competed since his second-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. The same is true for possible Belmont starters and Derby also-rans Honor MarieandDornoch.
Late-developing runners such as Mindframe (2-for-2) and Peter Pan Stakes (G3) winner Antiquarian also have upside.
Just last year, Arcangelo parlayed a Peter Pan win into a Belmont Stakes triumph. In his case, both the Belmont and the 1 1/8-mile Peter Pan came at Belmont Park.
Antiquarian, however, will need to transfer his form to a different racetrack—having won the Peter Pan during the Belmont at the Big A meet at Aqueduct Racetrack, again due to construction at Belmont Park. So, the benefit of a trip over the same track does not apply.
Looking as far back as the 1980s, Tonalist (2014), A.P. Indy (1992), and Danzig Connection (1986) were other Peter Pan/Belmont repeaters.
